Cyan Newsletter – 31 July 2026

17 Aug 2026

The Australian share market delivered a solid headline performance in July with the S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Accumulation Index rising 1.7% for the month, outperforming several major global indices like the S&P500 +0.4% and the NASDAQ -1.7%.

However, beneath the headline gain, sector performance diverged sharply with the S&P/ASX Small Ordinaries Accumulation Index down 3.2% and the S&P/ASX Emerging Companies Index falling 5.1%. The Cyan C3G Fund performed within this range giving up 4.6% in the month.

Energy stocks including Viva Energy (VEA +38%) and Ampol (ALD +21%) led the market, lifted by rising oil prices as Brent crude climbed above US$90 late in the month. Supply risks around the Strait of Hormuz remain a focus and oil prices continue to trade in a wide and volatile range, making any short-term play on oil a risky proposition.

Notable moves in big cap names in the month included some of the non-banking finance names like AMP (AMP +34%), Perpetual (PPT +22%) and HUB24 (HUB +17%) whist some material falls were seen in resources names like Liontown (LTR -43%) and Lynas (LYC -22%) and tech stocks Promedicus (PME), 4D Medical (4DX) and Zip Money (ZIP) which all gave up ~20%.

The performance of SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) has been topical with its early hype and strong performance met with significant selling which has seen the stock trade down around 20% below its issue price – and more than 50% off its earlier peak! Although, to the relief of investors, it has rallied in the last few days to currently be close to its US$135 IPO price.

As we noted in our 31 May 2026 report with respect to SpaceX: “We are surprised that a handful of prominent domestic brokers are promoting shares so vigorously in these large but arguably volatile and speculative overseas offerings.

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Month in Review

Much like the market, the Fund experienced large disparities in individual stock performance through July, and not always for what seemed logical reasons.

One of the more negative performances came from traffic camera operator Acusensus (ACE -21%) which appeared to fall from a simple absence of positive news. Like other smaller tech-focussed stocks, it has been in a downtrend for a few months, despite winning some major multi-million dollar contracts earlier in the year. Pleasingly the company has just announced a new US contract which has reversed the pessimistic sentiment and seen the stock rise strongly into August.

Alcidion (ALC -16%) released their 4th quarter FY26 result detailing record quarterly cash receipts ($24.6m), record operating cashflow ($7.7m) and a record forecast EBITDA result for the full year, in excess of $5m. We feel like we’ve been harping on for a while about this company but with ALC trading at an enterprise value close to $100m, this is one the cheapest commercially successful and scalable medical software business on the ASX.

Given the ongoing corporate activity in the market with takeover bids this month alone for OFX Group (OFX), SG Fleet (SGF) and Energy One (EOL), this company is sure to be lighting up on the radars of acquiring corporations.

After further consideration of our holding in Credit Clear (CCR -28%) with the ACCC having commenced proceedings against the company, we decided to exit our position before the Fund was impacted by the bulk of the fall in the month. Tellingly, this fall took place despite the company reaffirming its strong guidance for FY26 underlining the market’s fear of reputational damage to the business should the ACCC’s claims be proven.

The best outcome for the Fund during the month was from Janus Electric (JNS +110%) which won two major contracts in the US totalling A$55m (a $10m order and a $45m order) to convert more than 100 trucks from diesel to electricity and provide the associated battery packs. To deliver these conversions, the company raised ~$8m in new capital, to which the Cyan C3G Fund subscribed, lifting our holding. Given the generous incentives being provided in California of up to US$100,000 per truck, we expect further wins in the coming months. After the rise in the month and the capital raise, Janus is still capped at just $50m. We consider this a small company with a big future.

In line with the run in non-bank financials, pay advance and personal lender Beforepay (B4P +35%) delivered strong growth in pay advances (up 22% yoy) and personal loans which has contributed to a 68% YOY uplift in before tax profitability this quarter.

Media

There were a number of media pieces done during the month as listed on our website and Linkedin.

Outlook

The outlook for ASX small‑cap equities appears to be improving. After several years of tighter financial conditions and risk‑averse capital, small caps are beginning to benefit from stabilising interest rates and renewed M&A activity. Historically, periods of macro steadiness have allowed smaller companies to rerate faster than the broader market, and we’re starting to see that pattern emerge as investors look for growth beyond the large‑cap names.

Some recent corporate activity with the aforementioned takeovers of OFX Group (OFX), SG Fleet (SGF) and Energy One (EOL), along with Steadfast Group (SDF), Perpetual (PPT) and Accent Group (AX1) all point to the value in the current market.

Last month we wrote:
We have a number of holdings including Acusensus (ACE), Alcidion (ALC) and Janus Electric (JNS) that have been aggressively pursuing new material contracts and we hold high expectations that some of these will land in the coming weeks and months.”

Both Acusensus and Janus have announced meaningful contracts since then and, given their growth profile, we expect even more to come. Volatility remains a feature with daily swings in investors sentiment and longer-term views over the risk and opportunities of AI and associated software and tech businesses.

However this volatility should be well navigated with the Cyan C3G Fund remaining positioned in profitable well-funded companies across sectors including finance, health, transport, education and defence with ongoing avenues for growth and significant further appreciation.

Please stay in touch with our intra-month commentary via Linkedin or feel free to contact us at any time.