11 Nov 2025
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The Australian stock market experienced heightened volatility in October, driven by inflation surprises, shifting monetary policy expectations and volatile commodity prices. The S&P/ASX All Ords Accumulation Index reached record highs early in the month but ended with a notable dip, ending the month just 0.5% higher. The Cyan C3G Fund fared better, delivering a positive return of 5.6% for the month.
S&P/ASX All Ordinaries Jun- October
October began optimistically buoyed by strong domestic economic indicators and the anticipation of a potential rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). However, this sentiment was short-lived with hotter-than-expected inflation data, up 1.3% for the September quarter, rattling investors and sending the market tumbling. This spike in inflation led economists to revise forecasts, with many now expecting the RBA to hold off on further rate cuts, sending short-term rates higher.
Australian CPI – Monthly (bar), YoY (line)
Australian short-term interest rates. (BBSW)
Sector performance was mixed. Financials remained relatively stable while healthcare stocks, particularly CSL (CSL -10%), faced pressure along with highly priced market darlings such as Wisetech (WTC -23%), Life 360 (360 -7%) and Promedicus (PME -14%) contributing to the broader market decline.
The IPO pipeline continued to flow with many new prospectuses presented, although the optimistic initial pricing meant the Fund declined to subscribe. For the moment this has been a prudent call with these companies opening underwater including: Advanced Innergy Systems (AIH -8%), Nexsen (NXN -15%) and Carma (CMA -12%).
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Month in Review
Smart traffic camera company Acusensus (ACE +75%) continued to deliver impressive results with two contract announcements generating huge investor support. Of most relevance was the company’s first major US contract, a $34m, five year work zone speed control contract in Connecticut. At the end of the month, ACE also announced a $16m expansion of its speed camera contract in Queensland, doubling the number of ACE trailers in the state. Whilst the price movement might appear generous, the potential for continued major growth in the US is tangible with significant upside to the company’s current sub $300m market capitalisation.
The next best contributor was micro-investing platform, Raiz (RZI +19%). Raiz lifted customer pricing in August and has seen minimal churn. As such the company has forecast a decent lift in underlying profitability of around $5m in FY26, up from $2.8m in FY25. With FUM now exceeding $2bn and the ability to leverage its scalable business model, it is understandable the stock is gaining new investor attention.
Digital curricula and learning business ReadCloud (RCL +20%) provided a solid annual update (RCL has a September year-end) with growth in eBook sales and VET-in-Schools partnering fees contributing to a 100% uplift in EBITDA and positive operating cashflow.
Debt collection business Credit Clear (CCR +10%) rose after announcing a long-anticipated UK acquisition and associated $20m capital raising. The acquisition of ARC Europe is forecast to add $9m in revenue and $1.2m in EBITDA and is a great beachhead for CCR to further expand into the UK market. As a sign of confidence, CCR’s Chair, Paul Dwyer (PSC Insurance) took $8m in the placement to become one of the largest shareholders in the company. As an existing shareholder, the Cyan C3G Fund was allocated shares in the placement which contributed to the positive monthly return.
Despite the solid month, the Fund did endure a couple of declines in less material positions. NZ and UK-based transport technology company Eroad (ERD -26%) had enjoyed a strong recent run as governments embraced electronic vehicle tracking to replace fuel surcharges for EVs. However the company delivered a disappointing downgrade in US progress whilst disguising the announcement as positive and the Fund sold down its holding in response.
Additionally, advanced metal 3D printing manufacturer AML3D (AL3 -22%) sufferer from sustained investor selling despite a $4.5m machine order from a large US shipbuilder. There has been significant hype around US defence plays such as Droneshield (DRO), Elector Optical Systems (EOS), Amaero (3DA), Titomic (TTT), Metal Powder Works (MPW) and AML3D (AL3) of late which has begun to subside, particularly in light of the ongoing US Government shutdown. At $100m AML3D has the lowest market cap of this cohort and a commercial offering having generated over $7m in sales in FY25 thus we expect a solid rebound as the selling dissipates with possible catalysts in further US-based orders.
Media
There were a number of media pieces done during the month as listed on our website and Linkedin.
Outlook
The ASX Small Ordinaries Index has staged a significant rally in the current year, outpacing the performance of the ASX 100 by a considerable margin as investors seek value outside the expensive large-cap technology and financial names.
The market continued to see solid support, and this has continued into November – with the caveat being daily volatility in commodity prices which is whipping around the prices of stocks in materials and energy sectors, which the Cyan C3G Fund avoids.
Opportunities persist in primary and secondary issues, and this is accelerating into the end of the calendar year. Further, November’s AGM season could be the catalyst for stocks to react positively to upbeat news and FY26 outlook statements.
The RBA’s stance on interest rates remains a major determinant of investor confidence however the market has expectations of no further rates cuts which might be a potential positive if inflationary pressures subside.
Overall, the Cyan C3G Fund has been trading well with a rolling one-year return of 31%, well ahead of the All Ords 12.5%. Given the persisting (albeit closing) valuation gap with large caps and positive underlying operational outcomes of our core holdings, we feel optimistic about upcoming Fund reports.
Please stay in touch with our intra-month commentary via Linkedin or feel free to contact us at any time.
Dean Fergie and Graeme Carson
Cyan Investment Management
AFSL No. 453209
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